Security experts Lt. Gen. Raj Shukla (Retd.) former GOC of Army Training command who is also an expert on counter-insurgency operations, along with former commanding officer of TSD, Indian Army Col. Hunny Bakshi deciphers the unprecedented and surprise attack by Hamas on Israel.
About Lieutenant General Raj Shukla
Lieutenant General Raj Shukla is a retired General Officer of the Indian Army. He served as the General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Army Training Command (ARTRAC). He assumed office on May 1, 2020, succeeding Lt Gen P C Thimayya and superannuated on March 31, 20221. He has served in the military for over four decades2. He is an alumnus of the Defence Services Staff College - Wellington, the College of Defence Management - Secunderabad and the National Defence College - New Delhi2. He has commanded an Infantry Brigade in Counter Insurgency Operations, the Baramulla Division along the Line of Control in the Kashmir Valley and a Pivot Corps along the Western Borders2. Currently, he is a member of UPSC1.
About Colonel Hunny Bakshi
Colonel Hunny Bakshi is a retired officer of the Indian Army. He served as the Commanding Officer of the Technical Support Division (TSD), a Military Intelligence unit set up in 2010 under then Chief of Army Staff General V K Singh1. The TSD was involved in covert operations and intelligence gathering1. After facing allegations of mishandling classified information, the Indian Army ended the court-martial proceedings against him in 20182. He opted for premature retirement in 20193. He has also appeared on podcasts to discuss military and security matters4.
The recent Israel-Hamas war exposed a major intelligence failure for Mossad, highlighting the need for careful and calibrated actions to restore Israel’s image and address the challenges posed by terrorism and global dynamics.
Intelligence Failure and Strategic Planning
🌍 The Israel-Hamas conflict has shattered the aura of Israeli invincibility and exposed the intelligence failure of the Israeli apparatus.
🧩 The terror attacks carried out by Hamas were not just acts of terrorism, but rather a highly sophisticated and strategically executed military invasion.
💥 The orchestrated terror attacks in Israel were well-planned and executed with clinical precision, leaving the IDF stunned and highlighting the importance of high levels of intelligence and military readiness in foreign policy.
🕵️♂️ The Israel-Hamas conflict involved a game of deception, with Hamas deliberately feeding false information to deceive Israeli intelligence and divert their attention away from Gaza.
😮 The intelligence agencies had information about the logistics provided to the lashkar, but failed to connect the dots and realize that it would be used in the 26/11 attacks.
🌍 Intelligence plays a crucial role in national defense, and the failure of intelligence agencies like the CIA in the Israel-Hamas conflict highlights the importance of effective intelligence gathering and analysis.
💔 The brutality of the war is evident in the mention of showing bodies and women who have been gang raped, highlighting the terror tactics used by Hamas.
🕵️♂️ The failure of Mossad in the Israel-Hamas war was considered their “biggest intel failure.”
💣 “Maybe Mr Netanyahu also thought that when you keep striking a terror group, the presumption is that they have lost their ability to strike, but you forget that they are ideologically inclined towards eliminating you.”
Geopolitical Implications and National Security Challenges
🚀 The barrage of 7,000 rockets that stunned Tel Aviv and penetrated the Iron Dome reveals deep military planning and coordination, suggesting the involvement of Iran and its proxies in a larger geopolitical game.
🌍 “We must start looking beyond Pakistan and consider the larger nexus of terrorist organizations in the region, including TTP, JM, remnants of ISIS, remnants of al-Qaeda, and the involvement of Iran, Turkey, and China.”
💪 “If we don’t turn to the Seas, it’s late now…you have to start thinking like a big power, see a military which is structured to secure a $3 trillion economy and a military which will soon be asked to secure a $35 trillion economy.”
🌍 The speaker suggests that India is currently experiencing its moment in terms of national security and geopolitical challenges, highlighting the need for a comprehensive National Security makeover.
💣 “Netanyahu will have no option but to open up two fronts. This is how escalation can take place.” - The possibility of an all-out conflict and the escalation of violence between Israel and Hamas is a major concern.
Importance of Human Intelligence
🌍 “For a non-state actor to do almost something similar to what powerful armies did is something that has to be admired.”
🧠 The importance of human intelligence in military operations: “We need to invest more in human intelligence because human intelligence is also a hunch, a military hunch.”
🕵️♂️ The enemy’s intelligence system includes creating personality cards of commanders to exploit their weaknesses, emphasizing the significance of human intelligence in gathering crucial information.
🤔 The execution of the attacks involved trained individuals who had no digital footprint or electronic chatter, highlighting a significant failure in human intelligence gathering.
00:00 🔍 The recent Israel-Hamas war exposed a major intelligence failure for Mossad, shattering Israel’s invincibility and highlighting the need for careful and calibrated actions to restore their image.
1.1 The Hamas attacks in Israel revealed an intelligence failure and shattered the perception of Israeli invincibility, leading to potential lone wolf attacks and similar attacks by other resistance groups worldwide, while the CIA’s focus on the plumber allowed Hamas to build a rocket arsenal, forcing Netanyahu to open up two fronts.
1.2 The recent conflict between Israel and Hamas has exposed a major intelligence failure for Mossad, as Israel’s invincibility has been shattered and their delayed response to attacks has raised questions about their military prudence, highlighting the need for careful and calibrated actions in order to restore their image.
1.3 The Israel-Hamas war was a highly sophisticated and meticulously executed military invasion, indicating a major intelligence failure on the part of Israel.
1.4 Iran and its proxies executed a well-planned and coordinated attack using drones and rockets, targeting the weakness in the Iron Dome system, overwhelming it with a barrage of 7,000 rockets, which has larger geopolitical implications.
1.5 Terror attacks from both the south and north of Israel, along with a well-planned military strategy and orchestrated information warfare, left the Israeli Defense Forces stunned and immobilized, highlighting the importance of high-level intelligence and military readiness in foreign policy.
1.6 Information is not intelligence; intelligence is derived from analyzing and assessing information, and in the case of the Mossad, they relied on a book called “By Way of Deception” to understand how intelligence functions.
15:02 🚨 Israel’s intelligence failure in the Israel-Hamas war was due to overconfidence, lack of awareness, and a breakdown in communication, leading to major attacks and criticism of the IDF.
2.1 Hamas and its allies deceived Israel through deliberate misinformation and diversion tactics, leading to a major intelligence failure and the Israeli forces being caught off guard in the recent conflict.
2.2 The failure of the DMI in Israel’s military intelligence led to a breakdown in communication and assessment, resulting in the provision of logistics to the lashkar without realizing it would be used for attacks.
2.3 Israel’s intelligence failure during the Israel-Hamas war was due to their overconfidence in their technology and lack of awareness of the capabilities of their adversaries, leading to the loss of their advantage and the potential dissemination of their technology to their enemies.
2.4 The speaker discusses the possibility of the recent attacks being inspired by a sequence in a TV show, emphasizes the importance of intelligence in defense, and suggests that the Indian army needs to change its approach to intelligence.
2.5 Before being hit, it is important to invest in deterrence and reform national security, as non-state actors have the ability to create similar jitters and carry out coordinated attacks, as seen in the Israel-Hamas war.
2.6 Israel’s increased permits for people coming in from Gaza and Netanyahu’s focus on the Arab world’s acceptance of Israel have led to a failure in intelligence, as well as a shift in focus from Iran’s nuclear program to a regional war, resulting in criticism of the IDF.
40:25 💡 Investing in both technology and human intelligence is crucial for effective military operations, as seen in the Israel-Hamas war, where a terror organization livestreamed war crimes to instill fear, leading to global concern and potential consequences, while the polarization may result in an increase in lone wolf attacks.
3.1 Investing in both technology and human intelligence is crucial for effective military operations, as they complement each other and provide a comprehensive understanding of the situation.
3.2 A terror organization livestreams its war crimes to instill fear and brutality, aiming to wake up the world and humiliate Israel, leading to global voices of concern and potential consequences for their citizenship.
3.3 The polarization caused by the Israel-Hamas war may lead to an increase in lone wolf attacks by various resistance groups, similar to what ISIS did in Iraq and Syria, as seen in incidents where people were caught attempting to join ISIS in Kerala and Karnataka.
3.4 Israel’s response to the hostage situation is crucial for restoring deterrence and redeeming the IDF’s image, and they may resort to using hard power by killing more Palestinians, as seen in previous instances, but it remains uncertain if this approach will be successful.
3.5 Netanyahu faces dilemmas in the Israel-Hamas war, with his military options limited and the Hamas prepared for a comprehensive war, while Israel captures terrorists and showcases their actions to their population.
3.6 The enemy strategically targeted a weak commander based on their knowledge of his personality, highlighting the importance of human intelligence over technological intelligence in warfare.
52:21 🔍 India needs to remain vigilant and prioritize strengthening its military and national security capabilities to counter the threat posed by China, while also addressing the larger nexus of terrorist organizations and the influence of China in the region.
4.1 The speaker discusses the potential fallout in Kashmir due to the recent events in Israel-Hamas war and emphasizes the need to remain vigilant and not become complacent in order to prevent further attacks.
4.2 China’s deception and military infrastructure pose a threat to India, and Pakistan’s role is becoming less significant as India needs to focus on the larger nexus of terrorist organizations and the influence of China in the region.
4.3 India needs to prioritize and strengthen its military and national security capabilities in order to effectively counter the threat posed by China, as China has significantly increased its military strength and innovation in recent years.
4.4 India’s moment is now, but in order to ensure national security and navigate the converging challenges of geopolitics, the government must continue to take steps towards comprehensive reform and innovation.
4.5 The speaker discusses the use of communication technology in warfare, emphasizing the importance of controlling the electromagnetic spectrum and highlighting the use of misinformation in meetings, while also mentioning the disregard for communication protocols in certain situations.
4.6 Parents are being advised to remove TikTok from their children’s phones due to potential deception, highlighting the importance of human intelligence in contrast to technological tools.
01:07:47 🔍 Pakistanis were angry about an attack on India, highlighting the potential infiltration of sleeper cells; the speaker questions India’s belief in reforming terrorists and emphasizes the need for a competent state to be both soft and hard in dealing with terrorism.
5.1 Pakistanis were tweeting angry reactions to a multipronged attack on India, and the speaker gives an example of how sleeper cells can infiltrate a country by posing as refugees.
5.2 The speaker discusses the idea that repeated strikes on a terror group may not eliminate their ability to strike back, as they are ideologically inclined towards eliminating you, and questions whether the Indian way of looking at things is to believe that they can reform themselves if treated well.
5.3 A competent state should be both soft and hard in dealing with terrorism, and India should be prepared to protect its interests and citizens globally, challenging the narrative that it is not an expeditionary power.
5.4 Israel’s long history and national security challenges require constant proving of themselves, as failures can happen, but they must be prepared and take action to maintain deterrence and empower their commanding officers.
5.5 Israel’s military has suffered from structural failures and politicization, and it is important to nurture and reform militaries culturally and structurally, while also being politically aware but staying above politics, as insurgency is armed politics and understanding the politics of a place is crucial for success as a commander.
5.6 There is a constant war with an ideology of hate, and the circulation of videos of Israel bombing Palestinians is part of a propaganda campaign to create jihadis and incite implosive attacks from within.
01:29:06 📢 Israel’s fear of conflict with Hamas and China’s dominance in the EM spectrum pose challenges for defense budgets and talent, while lone wolf attacks and media’s role in spreading awareness are crucial in Israel’s security.
6.1 India faces a unique challenge from China in terms of differentiating capabilities in the EM spectrum, particularly in the areas of communication and data, as China has established a strategic support force to dominate the EM spectrum, posing challenges in terms of response, funding, and embedded Chinese hardware in Indian networks and phones.
6.2 Israel’s fear of an all-out conflict with Hamas and the possibility of a terrorist threat in Asia, along with the need for cost-effective military measures, highlight the importance of prioritizing defense budgets and talent in the face of China’s displacement anxiety.
6.3 Numbers matter in warfare as they provide physical dominance, and decisions regarding ammunition and technology must be carefully considered as they can change overnight due to evolving threats and lessons learned from conflicts like the Ukraine war.
6.4 Hamas aims to achieve its objectives through lone wolf attacks, which are now more feasible due to the availability of online resources, allowing individuals to easily procure local items and prepare improvised explosive devices.
6.5 People need to be vigilant and aware of their surroundings as lone wolves can be motivated to carry out attacks by attending certain gatherings, posting on social media, and acquiring materials from different places, highlighting the importance of media’s positive role and the potential negative consequences in Israel.
6.6 Some people in the media are questioning the credibility of the Israeli General’s claims about beheadings of babies, comparing it to the belief in Osama bin Laden’s death based on President Obama’s statement.
01:38:04 📰 The media’s failure to show the true story and the lack of internet services in Israel contributed to the Mossad’s biggest intelligence failure in the Israel-Hamas war, highlighting the importance of media responsibility and the complexity of modern technology in military communications.
7.1 Media responsibility is crucial in times of conflict, as journalists must make split-second decisions on whether to reveal sensitive information or wait for a sound judgment, and in the case of the Israel-Hamas war, the media’s failure to show the true story and the lack of internet services being stopped in Israel contributed to the Mossad’s biggest intelligence failure.
7.2 The transcript discusses the complexity and power of modern technology in military communications and the potential implications for national security.
7.3 The possibility that Hamas used H sets and network to communicate with each other, while the Israelis were unable to listen, is not denied and it is believed that they may have kept it secret by not relying on technology for communication during offensive operations.
7.4 The failure of the Mossad in the Israel-Hamas war was due to the leakage of plans and the lack of awareness among the majority of the force, resulting in the use of external training and expertise, and it remains to be seen if this failure will be discussed in military colleges and intelligence.
7.5 Civilians can contribute to the military by critiquing and pushing for higher performance, and in the case of an attack, awareness and lessons should start from homes and schools to prevent future incidents.
7.6 Bin Laden’s ability to evade capture for so long was due to his complete disconnection from the electronic world, and when the CIA finally had indications of his whereabouts, they were uncertain of his exact location, with estimates ranging from 50% to 55%.
01:51:47 🔍 The failure of Mossad in the Israel-Hamas war highlights the importance of fresh minds and diverse perspectives in intelligence, while Israel’s offensive retaliation humiliates Hamas and poses threats to global dynamics and the India Middle East economic corridor.
8.1 Civilian talent and fresh minds in intelligence are crucial for success, as demonstrated by the story of a girl who provided valuable information to the CIA, highlighting the importance of diverse perspectives and avoiding the influence of pre-existing biases.
8.2 The speaker discusses the failure of Mossad in the Israel-Hamas war, highlighting the impact of street creativity, GPS spoofing, and cultural transitions in the military.
8.3 There is a need for fresh minds and innovative thinkers within the military, as demonstrated by the success of individuals like the ex-NDA Arts graduate who became a cyber expert and the colonel who designed an indigenous WhatsApp.
8.4 Infantry soldiers should not be distinguished from scholars, as a nation that does so will have its fighting done by cowards and thinking done by fools.
8.5 The Israel-Hamas conflict is expected to be long and bloody, with Netanyahu facing domestic and international pressures, and a potential land campaign that may not yield significant results, but covert operations and potential involvement of carriers are expected.
8.6 Israel’s offensive retaliation in the Israel-Hamas war has humiliated Hamas and shown the world that they are not invincible, and while America’s involvement may hasten the transition of power in the Middle East, it also poses a threat to the India Middle East economic corridor and highlights the divided nature of the world.
Q: What was the recent attack in Israel attributed to, and what was its purpose?
A: The recent attack in Israel was attributed to Hamas, who planned and executed the attack to showcase war crimes. The purpose of the attack was to shatter the perception of Israeli invincibility and to demonstrate the capability of Hamas in carrying out highly sophisticated and brilliantly executed military invasions.
Q: How did the recent attack in Israel expose a major intelligence failure in the Israeli intelligence apparatus?
A: The recent attack in Israel was compared to 9/11 and called the worst civilian massacre in 75 years of Israel’s history. This highlighted a major intelligence failure within the Israeli intelligence apparatus, indicating that there was a breakdown in intelligence gathering, analysis, and dissemination. The attack showed meticulous planning and precision in its execution, suggesting that Israeli intelligence failed to detect and prevent the threat.
Q: How did the recent attacks in Israel overwhelm the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF)?
A: Israel faced an overwhelming number of rockets and terror attacks from both the South and the North, leaving the IDF stunned and unable to react effectively. While the Iron Dome system intercepted a certain number of rockets, it became overwhelmed when faced with a higher volume of attacks. This overwhelmed the IDF and created a significant challenge in defending against and responding to the attacks.
Q: How did Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad deceive Israel and contribute to the security breach?
A: Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad sent signals of an attack in the West Bank, creating a diversion and drawing attention away from their actual plans. This deceptive tactic caused a security breach as Israel focused on the West Bank, allowing the actual attack to take place unnoticed. The communication between different parties involved in the attack was small and unnoticed, enabling the attackers to execute their plans without detection.
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